Videobook

18 AI Futures. You're Already Living in One.

Of eighteen possible AI futures, one has already begun: Gradual Normalization, in which we hand over our abilities to AI voluntarily, step by step. Dirk Werner adds six scenarios that don't need a defining moment to the twelve Max Tegmark described in Life 3.0 in 2017. The videobook narrates the essay, with chapters you can jump to.

23 min · · English

An essay by Dirk Werner. Narration and images AI-generated, editorially reviewed by Dirk Werner.

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Chapters

  1. Introduction
  2. The 2017 Map
  3. Faster Than It Feels
  4. The Race No One Is Slowing Down
  5. Six Paths Missing from Tegmark's Map
  6. The Frog in the Water
  7. The Objection
  8. The Litmus Test
  9. What the Other Maps Overlook
  10. The Question That Remains
  11. The Complete Map for Reference

Read the essay

The full text with all sources is on the blog: 18 AI Futures. You're Already Living in One.

Frequently asked questions

What are the 18 AI futures?

A map of eighteen possible paths through the age of AI.

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Physicist Max Tegmark described twelve scenarios in his 2017 book Life 3.0, and Dirk Werner added six because trajectories have become visible since then that Tegmark could not map out. The map ranges from worlds where poverty has been eradicated to worlds where we no longer exist.

Which six AI futures are missing from Tegmark's map?

Stagnation, Fragmentation, AI Collapse, Bifurcation, Silent Disempowerment and Gradual Normalization.

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The first three concern the technology itself, the other three are about what happens to people. What all six have in common is that they don't need a defining moment.

Which AI future are we already living in?

Gradual Normalization, scenario 18. AI seeps so slowly into every area of life that there is no tipping point at which anyone could have said "Stop."

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It is the only scenario on the map that isn't set in the future, and at the same time the psychological path to Silent Disempowerment.

When does delegating to AI become disempowerment?

When the possibility of returning disappears.

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That happens when returning becomes expensive because one's own ability has atrophied, difficult because the alternative is no longer institutionally provided for, or impossible because no one knows how it works anymore. Delegation alone is not disempowerment: using a GPS doesn't disempower you.

Is the video AI-generated?

The narration and images are AI-generated; the text is an essay by Dirk Werner, who editorially reviewed the videobook.

Where can I read the essay?

On Dirk Werner's blog, with all sources: dirkwernerbooks.com/blog/18-ai-futures-youre-already-living-in-one.

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The videobook narrates this essay.

About the author

Dirk Werner · Psychologist and licensed psychotherapist (Dipl.-Psych.) specializing in cognitive-behavioral therapy. Over 26 years of clinical and outpatient experience in individual, couples and group therapy. Author of 31 books and audiobooks in German and English.

Deutsche Fassung